With the winter storm centre forecast to track over or very close to Lake Erie on Friday, latest indications suggest the most significant part of this winter storm will be freezing rain which is expected to arrive over the extreme southwest later this evening then spreading quickly east to remaining districts overnight. The freezing rain will be mixed with ice pellets and snow and may briefly change over to plain rain in parts of Essex and Kent counties if the temperature manages to nudge just above the zero degree mark tonight. However as the storm centre passes by, colder air will quickly return and cause the precipitation to change over to snow with a few cm possible over southwestern sections and as high as 10 cm possible towards the southern part of Niagara. These regions will be very close to the heavy snow – freezing rain boundary. Even a small change in the exact track of the storm centre may significantly change how much snow or freezing rain may fall at a p articular locale. Motorists and pedestrians should be prepared for untreated surfaces to become icy and treacherous from the freezing rain. Low visibility in heavier snow is also possible in locales that receive an accumulating snowfall. Travel plans should be altered accordingly. The precipitation will end in western sections Friday morning and elsewhere during the afternoon as the storm centre moves away.
A Texas low will track northeast across Illinois this evening then follow a path over Lake Erie into Western New York State or Northern Pennsylvania on Friday. The storm centre will move away Friday night and merge with another winter storm forecast to affect parts of New England and the Maritimes. Please refer to your local public forecast for further details.